How to Use AI to Predict Volcanic Eruptions
It may serve as extremely critical protection for people living near active volcanoes if JS can predict volcanic eruptions. Researchers are working with satellite images and machine learning technologies to observe volcanoes closely, looking for small changes which could indicate that an eruption was already imminent.
This model was found to predict excellent locations for eruptions almost in real time, indicating this could be a useful addition to decision support systems for setting volcanic alerts.
1. Detecting Precursors
AI can help here too. Machine learning algorithms will be able to scan massive datasets of seismic recordings and satellite images to gather the precursor signals of forthcoming eruptions that will build an automated warning system, which has successively predicted 57 out of 59 eruptions at Mount Etna over an 11-year span.
The performance of the system is improved as a result of training it with magma-hosting volcanoes known to display precursory changes in gas composition before eruptions. This helps it identify which such features would be more salient for these volcanoes.
An attention layer that combines these features prioritizes the data by identifying its most important triggers and prioritizes them for the process of making decisions. The technology is being tested at Sakurajima Volcano in Japan, with promising early results; plans are underway to extend this technology to the globe.
2. Ground Monitoring
And it is, of course, at once beautiful and deadly. A volcano can present out of itself magnificent natural edifices that contains multitudes of complex ecosystems, yet erupting volcanoes may devastate human lives, homes, and the resources that one could find valuable. Hence, monitoring actually needs to be done by volcanologists as such, since they are the very eyes that will discover precursors that signal volcanic eruption, and also create plans of evacuation and warning systems.
The science of volcano monitoring uses both satellite imagery and field monitoring to predict a possible eruption, but such advancements using artificial intelligence and machine learning could even further improve predictions. COMET scientist Juliet Biggs from Bristol and Leeds universities has created a clever new system using satellite imagery to identify distortions in ground above volcanoes, which idicates magma movements below. If there are then considerable speeds up or slowdowns, it may be a sign of magma moving underground and an eruption possibility!
Alberto Gaddes from the University of Granada has also implemented an automated system, using machine learning, for detecting volcanic unrest events from space. The program examines satellite images for evidence of changes or trends that may imply an impending volcanic eruption.
It can now detect eruptions days in advance and is more accurate than present volcano predictions by volcanologists. It can even handle satellite image distortion by atmospheric water vapor; however, it has not been able to detect every form of disturbance in volcanoes yet and does not substitute physical monitoring services.
3. Recognizing Triggers
Satellite images can also be a clue about an eruption on the verge of occurring; for instance, if the surface of a volcano deforms quickly, it can indicate that an eruption is imminent. This, however, needs the right pieces of equipment to be effective.
Machine learning algorithms can also assist in sifting through data to find tendencies to much deeper understanding. These algorithms might also offer methods of predicting by that interpretation.
The eruptions have kept many volcanologists busy to understand the triggering mechanisms behind an eruption. They study both static stresses that generally act around the epicenter of a volcano, and dynamic stresses that may travel farther away.
Scientists are hoping to solve this problem with the combination of satellite imagery with machine learning algorithms. Researchers initiated a project named VepNet that surveys volcanic activity and predicts eruptive events based on the volcano's behavior in recent years. An attention layer prioritizes likely trigger mechanisms of such eruption, allowing the researchers to make predictions probably up to several minutes before the event.
4. Forecasting Eruptions
Scientists may develop methods to predict volcanic eruptions, thus benefiting 800 million people living within 30 miles of a volcano. This technique was reported to use artificial intelligence and satellite technologies in monitoring deformation of the ground around volcanoes as predicted changes in the surface geometry surrounding volcanoes could reflect activity beneath them. Researchers use machine learning to detect these deformations and study them through the Copernicus Sentinel missions from the European Space Agency and University of Leeds.
Another w ay scientists measure magma movement and heat production is by analyzing gases released during the reaching surface. The scientists can measure or quantify the concentration of hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen gas clouds on top of volcanoes, providing information about its velocity and heat production. They are also using drones to collect gases from the core of a volcano if it is too dangerous for humans.
